Monday, January 02, 2017

Post election blues.

It went about as I expected. I could tell at 8pm that Hillary was going to lose. Except that she didn't. But she did. (What was the final vote/point spread? About 2%, wasn't it? Just about what I called it for months ago)

What happens in Presidential elections?

The thing to understand there is that polling fails to tell the correct story. It just tells a story, probably a little closer to being the story pollsters want told.

What really happens: Look at who was elected President since WW2. What's the common thread to (nearly) all of them?

We do NOT elect "Washington insiders" to be President. Except Johnson, who was elected in 64 really as a continuation of JFK as a sympathy vote. And Nixon. And we all know how that ended. Otherwise: Truman. Eisenhower. JFK. Carter. Reagan. GHWB. Ok, GHWB was kinda insider, really got elected on being Reagan 2.0. Bill Clinton. GWB. Obama.

Really, mostly those guys are "outsiders". We don't elect "insider" presidents. So on that measurement Hillary wasn't ever going to win--she's as "insider" as it is possible to get. And sure as hell Trump is as far from being an insider as anyone could get.

Look at who the losers were. Mostly Washington insiders.

And now the Republicans are four state legislatures away from achieving absolute and permanent control of the country. That could happen in 2017, and then Obergefell will fall. Roe v Wade will fall. Etc.

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